2016 Election

ASSC Studios Official Election Center 

 

 

November 7, 2016

*huff* *puff* *weeze* Gees.  It's just about here and it changed changed for once since last time.  Clinton loses IA and OH but still wins the election.   

Candidate Popular Vote
Clinton 47.48%
Trump 51.44%
Johnson 4.39%
Stein 1.43%
Castle 0.20%
McMullin 7.34%
Duncan 7.9%

Minor rise for Clinton, bigger for Trump.  Quite a drop for Johnson and Stein.  Finally have Castle from the Constitution Party and the two Independents McMullin and Duncan included in all of this.  Let's see how right I am tomorrow.

 

October 19, 2016

Gee what a surprise nothing has changed.  We'll see how much a disaster the debate is tonight and see if anything actually changes between now and Election Day. 

Candidate Popular Vote
Clinton 47.2%
Trump 49.14%
Johnson 8.08%
Stein 3.39%

Minor drops for Clinton and Trump though Electorally Clinton has it no matter how "rigged" the election is *rolls eys.* *ahem* Quite and increase for Johnson and a bit for Stein.  I may have to update once before Election Day as I need to figure out Castle and McMullin as McMullin really has a chance to change Utah.  When I can't say but hopefully before the final update the day before Election Day.

 

October 10, 2016

I could have updated yesterday but I decided to go to Comic Con instead to you know forget about this ulcer inducing election for a weekend to bury myself in pop culture for a weekend.  That's also the reason I'm using for why I didn't watch the debate oh that I didn't want to vomit.  Regardless any numbers used would not include yesterday's train wreck, if I waited until tomorrow that would be a different story however.  Per usual nothing has changed with the electoral vote.  Now let's check the popular vote (guess I'm still calling it that). 

Candidate Popular Vote
Clinton 46.8%
Trump 49.2%
Johnson 5.23%
Stein 1.50%

That looming huge mess is there but I don't think many Republicans in Congress will actually support Trump seeing as they're all ready trying to distance themselves as they actually want to win.  Regardless everyone except Stein have dropped 0.02%.  Castle and McMullin still not factored in hopefully I'll have time to do so between now and the 19.  Until then let's hope the country can survive until Election day.

 

October 5, 2016

Would have updated yesterday but you know it was the season premiere of the Flash so yeah...doesn't amtter that as with the Electoral College wise nothing has changed since last time, again.  We'll see what happens after Kaine pretending to be an attack dog and Pence actually doing a good job (from what I read like I said was watching the Flash instead, yeah they were an hour apart but after I watched the Flash I decided to read comic books not the Flash Justice Society and Titans not that you care).

*ahem* now on to the popular vote... 

Candidate Popular Vote
Clinton 46.82%
Trump 49.22%
Johnson 5.25%
Stein 1.50%

Still the possibility of a huge mess but I'm pointing out that they all dropped slightly.  Yeah I realize that I need to add in Castle and McMullin too but that's not going to happen any time soon, hopefully before the election.

We'll see what damage Kaine did (which is unfortunate because I was growing to actually like the guy and wishing he was running instead of well anyone that ran in any of the primaries) if any on my next update which will probably be Monday because I'm busy Sunday and won't be able to update before those debates..  Honestly I doubt it will do anything because really the vice presidential debates are like the points in Whose Line.  Not to mention that really nothing has changed electorally since August.

September 26, 2016

Electoral College wise nothing has changed since last time.  We'll see what happens after tonight's debate.

As for the popular vote...

Candidate Popular Vote
Clinton 46.93%
Trump 49.27%
Johnson 5.34%
Stein 1.54%

I still don't know if I should still call this Popular Vote or just chance of winning.  Regardless if the electoral and final end up like this we're going to see a HUGE mess. 

Ok we'll see what happens between now and the next debate on the 4.  We can only hope Trump fails as bad as they say he's going to, oh and Clinton actually shows a personality that would be nice then regardless if we get "recent" (calm? reserved?) Trump Clinton showing she's likeable should put her over the top for a better chance of showing the above.  Still trying to get Kirby polling.

 

August 6, 2016

The conventions are over, and even though there are grumplings on both sides it seems like there will be no split votes or parties and it's Clinton v Trump.  Since last time Trump has lost Colorado giving Hillary 347 Votes and the Donald 191.

As for the popular vote...

Candidate Popular Vote
Clinton 48.07%
Trump 48.64%
Johnson 2.59%

Could you imagine a race that close?  Trump would probably call a recount in every state.  Well he'd probably do that even if he lost by a HUGE margin.  Regardless it would be the 2000 election x I don't know, 16?  It wouldn't be pretty.  Of course we know things aren't looking well for him when Paul Ryan is all ready referrring to Hillary Clinton as President Clinton.

I'm not going to update as the third parties do their conventions, especially since the only third parties people actually care about are Libertarian and Green.  Libertarians had there convention the Greens are doing there's next week.  If the other parties start polling when I update next (probably around the first debate) then they'll be added here if not then well they won't obviously.  I guess I'll update the days of the debates?  That would be September 26 next followed by October 4, 9, 19 and 25 if the candidates actually go to that debate.  After that the final update will be the day before election day.  Five to six more updates wow, almost in the home stretch.  I got to figure out how to get Kirby polling...

 

June 6, 2016

Looks like things are fairing too well for Trump currently.  Since last month he's lost PA and if there's a split in the GOP (we can only hope) he's doing the worst he has so far with a possible split.  

DEMOCRATS: 41.11% chance of winning popular vote

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 45.96% 46.03%
Sanders 38.95% 39.25%

 

Trump: 50.29% chance of winning popular vote (36.4% if there is a GOP split)

Yeah I know, still bad news with the popular vote.  We all know how terrible it will be if Trump wins the popular but loses the electoral.  Bernie really needs to give up.  He's losing in actual votes and regular delegates which translates to him not being able to persude the Super Delegates to his side come convention time.  No matter what it really is done tomorrow and Hillary will be the persumptive nominee on the Democratic side no matter what.  If he doesn't give up there he's going to blow it for the rest of us.  This is evident from the slight gains to Trump and slight losses to Hillary.

Go figure last time I ended up being right about KY but wrong about OR.  Anyway these are my predictions for chances of winnings tomorrow:

CA:
Clinton: 51.13%

Sanders: 39.26%

MT:
Clinton: 38.49%

Sanders: 35% 

ND & SD: NO POLLING DATA

Yeah the Dakotas apparently don't do polls, and neither does DC (not that I would have updated on the 13 anyway for just 1 primary).  Once the third parties start doing their conventions and get nominees I'll start including them it just gets too crazy (especially this election) doing all the third parties prior without actual nominees.  Seeing as there are only a few days between the end of the GOP convention and start of the Democratic I don't see a point in updating in between both so I will update shortly after July 28, probably some time during that first week in August.

 

May 16, 2016

051616split

Sorry about the no update before the primaries last week things got a little bit crazy.  Hey we got a GOP presumptive nominee since then unfortuantely it's Trump.  However, as seen by my second map there is still speculation that the GOP might split now giving the possible third party Republican AZ, TN, and SC

DEMOCRATS: 41.36% chance of winning popular vote

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.12% 46.19%
Sanders 38.17% 38.50%

 

Trump: 49.49% chance of winning popular vote (36.25% if there is a GOP split)

Great that's all we need is for Trump to win the popular vote but lose the electoral.  You thought 2000 was bad?  This will be worse.  Anyway it looks like gains for both Clinton and Sanders now that Trump is the presumptive GOP nominee.  Sanders really needs to drop out so we can get a better guess of the Democratic possibility of winning as it will probably be a lot closer and a less of a chance of a 2000 repeat.  I don't understand how Bernie is so bad at math.  I mean even if Hillary loses the rest of the primaries she's still close enough that the gains she gets would still land her the nomination.  

Last time I was wrong about Rhode Island but the other predictions held true (basically everything I have is a predicted chance of winning the state).  As my next update won't be until just prior to June 7 for CA, NJ, NM, ND, and SD here are my predictions for the chances Hillary and Bernie have for winnig each state.  Yeah I could include Trump as other candidates are still technically on the ballots for the Republicans but why bother.  I mean I know the GOP convention is still going to be a fight and possibly still contested but we will worry about that in July.  Back on track here is waht I predict the chances for Hillary and Bernie of winning the remaining states prior to June 7:

 

KY (which is going to be wrong because I haven't found enough polls for Kentucky and there's no way Hillary is going to win it)

Clinton: 43.21%

Sanders: 18%

(like I said just ignore my Kentucky chances...watch that be right)

 

OR

Clinton: 48.14%

Sanders: 37.5%

 

Go figure both of these are tomorrow anyway.  But yeah Clinton really mucked up her campaign in Kentucky with those coal comments but like I said not enough polls from the sources I use from the state tho show anything differently.  Oh well, always off by a state I guess.  Catch you all prior to June 7!

 

April 26, 2016

042516trump042516split

Five states up for primaries tomorrow and once again to no surprise nothing has changed on the Normal map.  If Trump runs as a third party candidate Montana and Indiana have changed since last time giving them both to Trump.  Now if Trump gets the nomination and another Republican runs as a third party Indiana favors Trump as the Republican.

DEMOCRATS: 41.59% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.02% 46.09%
Sanders 37.59% 37.94%

 

REPUBLICANS: 38.70% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 34.84% 34.83%
Cruz 28.40% 28.17%
Kasich 16.91% 16.62%

Slight gains all around for all the candidates for their chances.  Biggest gain for the election to Kasich followed by Bernie while the opposite is true for the primaries.  Both candidates seem to have increasing support for surprsingly be able to hang in this long though neither seem to be able to win their primiary.  Bernie though is in second place to win the election after Hillary Kasich however ist still last.  Smallest gains to Ted Cruz, but no real surprise there as he's seemed to have given up with the coasts.  Predictions for tomorrow:

CT:

49.43% Hillary, 41.39% Bernie

41.78% Trump, 30.90% Kasich, 23.14% Cruz

DE:

45% Hillary, 36% Bernie

55% Trump, 18% Kasich, 15% Cruz

PA

52.3% Hillary, 38.26% Bernie

44.15% Trump, 32.16% Kasich, 30.29% Cruz

RI

44% Hillary, 41.5% Bernie

49.5% Trump, 20.25% Kasich, 11.25% Cruz

Basically tomorrow will be another bad day to be bad Cruz...well and America but every day has been a bad day to be America this election.  I'm so glad I always forget to read the website's email.  As I only update prior to multiple state primaries the last two updates before conventions will hopefully be May 9 and June 7.  After that I plan on updating the day before each convention starts then once in September and Ocotber, and finally a week out before the election and then the day of.  That's only 8 more updates and this election can finally be over with....as long as there are no recounts in Florida or Ohio!

 

April 4, 2016

With Wisconsin tomorrow I finally have a chance to update before a primary for the first tiime in a month.  Yikes.  In that month time (to no surprise) nothing has changed on the Normal map.  If trump runs as a third party candidate Montana and Arizona have switched since last month, MT for the Republican and AZ for trump.  Now if Trump gest the nomination and another Republican runs the switch with Arizona is Utah.

DEMOCRATS: 40.99% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 45.9% 45.98%
Sanders 35.7% 35.72%

 

REPUBLICANS: 38.37% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 33.21% 33.98%
Cruz 28.27% 28.04%
Kasich 14.97% 14.7%

Very sligh gains for both parties in the general election.  These slight gains from last month probably due to Rubio dropping out of the race.  Slight losses to Hillary for winning the primary and general with gains to Bernie to both who though still unfavored to win his party's nomination is still gaining slight momemntum with being able to carry this race this far.  Trump had a very slight drop in his primary chance and a very slight gain in the general.  Larger gains for Kasich and Cruz, especially Cruz, both most likely due to Rubio dropping out.  Predictions for Wisconsin: Hillary and Bernie are too close to call but my data shows a small lead for Hillary with a 48.48% chance for her and a 46.08% chance for Bernie.  I have Cruz as the most likely winner for Wisconsin, I was right about Idaho let's see if my predictions of cheese are just as good with potatoes.  I show Cruz with a 35.19% chance, Trump with 30.17%, and Kasich who I'm pretty sure is just trolling Cruz and Trump now with a 26.68% chance of winning.  I don't see the point in updating for just one state for the Democratic Wyomnig Caucus and the New York Primaries.  The only reason I updated today was because it has been a whole month.  Five states in the northeast go to primary on the 26 so I will aim for an update on the 25 but no promises as things start to get a bit Febtobery that week in April...

 

March 7, 2016

All right we have 4 states up tomorrow here are the changes for November since Thursday.  Nothing per usual in a "normal" election (use that term real loosely because nothing has been normal about this election) or if Trump splits off to do his own thing.  However Trump becomes the GOP nominiee and another Republican runs looks like at the moment the good people of Kansas come to their senses and don't vote for the Donald.

DEMOCRATS: 40.56% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.32% 46.39%
Sanders 33.14% 33.21%

 

REPUBLICANS: 38.09% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 33.3% 33.3%
Cruz 26.36% 26.14%
Rubio 24.05% 23.91%
Kasich 13.59% 13.27%

Slight gain for the Democrats and Republicans again, GOP gain probably becuase Carson finally dropped out.  A slight dip for Hillary's chances of winning the election and a slight gain to Bernie.  Trump and Cruz gaining the Carson bump while not so much for Rubio.  Figured I'd add Kasich as 4 is way more managible than the excesive amounts of Republicans back in February.  Primary wise Hillary sees a slight drop while theres a slight but bigger gain for Berine.  On the GOP primary side Donald and Ted still receiving those slight bumps with Carson leaving Rubio still lost a bit.  Predictions for tomorrow:  Hawaii has no data so that's anyone's guess, Cruz wins Idaho, Hillary adn Trump both win in Michigan and Mississippi.  If there is another update this week (and that's a big if) it will be Thursday, otherwise probably next Monday.

 

 

March 3, 2016

Ok real quick because I forgot to check if there were primaries before Sunday which there are both days this weekend I guess.  So standard election stays the same.  Trump as third party candidate he beats the Republican but still a democratic victory.  Trump as the Republican Candidate he beats the Republican Third Party Candidate.  Scenario #2 Trump gains back LA and MS, scenario #3 he gains LA and MS.

DEMOCRATS: 40.34% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.34% 46.52%
Sanders 31.94% 32.04%

 

REPUBLICANS: 37.65% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 33.01% 33.01%
Cruz 26.31% 26.09%
Rubio 24.75% 24.06%

Slight gain for the Dems for winning, slight loss for the GOP.  Both Hillary and Bernie have slight gains in winning the Election and the primaries.  Trump and Cruz gain on chances of winning primary Rubio losses slighltly.  Slight losses to Trump and Rubio on winning election, Cruz has sligh win.  This was a quick update so sorry for no primary predictions again.  Next potential update is 3/7.

 

February 29, 2016

Things are starting to get a bit crazy here, Donald Trump might actually the GOP nominiation.  Seriously?  I guess there is really something wrong with this country if people actually want Trump as president.  Oh wait you shouldn't say bad things about him he'll threaten to punch you in the face.  I think people forgot how to use the internet because really if you Google Donald Trump even Ted Cruz looks like a better choice.  And you all wonder why I'm running my cat for president.  *Ahem* Anywho, with Super Tuesday tomorrow if there is only one GOP candidte nothing has changed.  If Trump hopefully loses the GOP nomination then we have a switch between MS and AL of who goes to Trump and he gains TN as well.  If there split is the other way then things really get switched up.  Oh and I'm going to stop worrying about the independents until I start to actually see them in polls, I will however start listing the top thre Republican candidates though seeing as Carson and Kasich should just drop out soon.  Carson probably will after tomorrow but I have a feelsing Kasich will be in this awhile longer.

DEMOCRATS: 40.23% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.17% 46.24%
Sanders 31.64% 31.74%

 

REPUBLICANS: 37.81% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 32.42% 33.06%
Cruz 26.27% 26.05%
Rubio 25.24% 25.07%

The Democrats and Republicans both dipped a bit in their chances of winning, but luckily more so the Republicans (if you haven't figured out that ASSC Studios is run by a moderate liberals by now you've been visiting the wrong website for the past 15 years).  Not that I've lost site hits, both Hillary and Bernie gained ever so slightly in winning the primary and general election but Hillary is still up ahead as the potential Democratic nomniee...if she doesn't go to prison before then but that's another story for another day or you know just Google it.  Bigger jump for Trump than Cruz come the general election, looks like Trump is the only who can beat Bernie in the general election.  Trump also has gained slightly in winning the primary while Cruz has dropped slightly.  Rubio is closing in on Cruz.  I probably have enough data to start predicting primary results I'm just lazy and have spent longer on the election center tonight than I wanted but yeah #kirby4prez please!

February 17, 2016

021716trump

Not much has changed since New Hampshire except that if Trump runs as a third candidate PA and MS go to him but he lost OK to the GOP.  Regardless it's still a Democratic vicotry in November.  Going in to Nevada and South Carolina here are the top two candidates in each party:

DEMOCRATS: 40.25% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.13% 46.21%
Sanders 31.55% 31.66%

 

REPUBLICANS: 38.04% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 31.93% 31.95%
Cruz 27.17% 26.92%

 

INDPENDENTS: 11.86% chance of winning

Candidate Election Chance
Bloomberg 22.5%
Webb 13.82%

Very, very slight changes since New Hampshire, Democrats still carrying popular vote along with electoral.  Both Hillary and Bernie gained slight leads in winning and I do mean slight.  Cruz saw a slight drop and Trump saw a slight gain.  Both Democrats and Republicans saw a slight rise in winning over all, Democrats still win though.  I know I said I would update three times for Nevada and South Carolina but honestly the primary dates really confuse me so I'll just update either February 28 or 29 for Super Tuesday.  Speaking of Super Tuesday, after that fun is over with I'll start including all remaining candidates for the GOP.

 

February 8, 2016

020816

New Hampshire is tomorrow and not much as changed from Iowa except that Montana has fallen back to Trump if he runs as a third candidate.  Stil a Democratic victory in November.  Here are the top two candidates form each party:

DEMOCRATS: 40.16% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.05% 46.13%
Sanders 30.92% 31.04%

 

REPUBLICANS: 37.37% chance of winning

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 31.86% 31.88%
Cruz 27.26% 27.01%

 

INDPENDENTS: 11.86% chance of winning

Candidate Election Chance
Bloomberg 22.5%
Webb 13.82%

Still not a whole lot changed from Iowa.  At least now the Democrats will cary the popular vote along with the electoral.  Expected next update is February 18 for Nevada and South Carolina on the 20, 23, and 27.

 

January 28, 2016

Going in to Iowa...not much changed unless Trump runs as a third party then it looks the people of Montana and Wyoming will have come to their senses by election day.  Democrats still only wint PA if Trump runs as a third party but either way it's still looking like a Democratic vicotry in November.   Once again I will only be giving my top two candidates form each party.

DEMOCRATS: 36.17% chance of winning popular vote

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.06% 46.13%
Sanders 30.87% 30.81%

 

REPUBLICANS: 36.94% chance of winning popular vote

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 31.93% 31.95%
Cruz 27.31% 27.05%

 

INDEPENDENTS: 11.86% chance of winning popular vote

Candidate Election Chance
Bloomberg 22.5%
Webb 13.82%

 

Not much really changing again.  Democrats are slightly closer to win the popular vote along with the electoral.  I mean I have it less than a percent.  Hopefully I will update prior to New Hampshire.  If not then Nevada and South Carolina.  

 

January 20, 2016

012016012016trump

Well obviously it's been quite some time since the last update to the 2016 election ceter (14 days over 3 years oops).  Sorry that life has been kicking my ass since January 6, 2013.  The above took me 15 days to compile so maybe I shouldn't have waited a day shy of three years to update.  Oh well.  So this is what everything looks like as of a day over two weeks ago.  In the regular contest the Democrats loose PA from three years ago.  If Trump [hopefully] loses the primaries and decides to run as a third candidate (yeah he "pledged" he wouldn't but a month ago when he dipped in the polls he said the GOP wasn't holding up their end so he would run as a third candidate because of that so we all know it's BS he won't run as a third party candidate if he loses the primaries) PA goes back to the Democrats and the Republicans lose 11 states.  Due to the disproportionate sizes of the pool candidates in each party (in other words because I'm lazy) I am only go to give the data of the top two candidates in each party.

DEMOCRATS: 36.58% chance of winning POPULAR vote

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Clinton 46.06% 46.15%
Sanders 30.13% 30.21% 


REPUBLICANS: 37.39% chance of winning POPULAR vote

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump 31.69% 31.69%
Cruz 27.99% 27.69%


INDEPENDENTS: 11.89% of winning POPULAR vote

Potential Candidate Election Chance
Bloomberg 28.75%
Webb 13.85%

 

So there you have it.  If we get independents in the ring it will probably be Bloomberg and/or Webb.  The Democrats are going to lose the popular vote but win the electoral.  My guess is PA will be the new FL.  (Does anyone even remember or care about the 2000 election anymore?)

 

January 6, 2013

We're still licking our wounds from the election 2 months ago, the new year has barely started, and Obama has yet to be inaugurated for his second term.  So yes it makes perfect sense to be updating for the 2016 election all ready.  Not much changes (though my "new" map should be as the states still have their 2000-2008 election electoral votes don't worry though as the final results are accurate.  Pretty much the same as we saw in November minus the North Carolina Colorado switch.  Obviously I am way ahead of myself (because it's fun being obnoxious) and this is going to change quite a few times between now and 2016.  At least you can probably say you saw the predictions here first!  Though I know pollsters were asking about 2016 even before 2012 was up.  Now for what you're really waiting for, the candidates.  There's a whole bunch of predictied candidates so I am only going to post the ones I have statistics/results for.

DEMOCRATS: 

46.04% chance of winning Congress in 2014

32.29% chance of winning White House in 2016

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Biden 22.75% 19.33%
Booker 1.5% N/A
Clinton 56.5% 57%
Cumo 17.2% 15.2%
Feingold 4.22% 5.67%
Gillibrand 1.5% N/A
O'Malley 2.45% 2.8%
Patrick 4% 4.5%
Schweitzer 0.86% 1.4%
Warner 10.06% 2.4%
Warren 9.26% 8.6%

 

REPUBLICANS:

52.19% Chance of winning Congress in 2014

31.84 Chance of winning White House in 2016

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Brown N/A 3%
Bush 13% 14.5%
Christie 20.45% 17.67%
Huckabee 10.3% 14%
Jindal N/A 3%
McDonnell N/A 37%
Palin 3.3% 7%
Paul 11.42% 6.3%
Rice 9.4% 11%
Rubio 20.33% 20.67%
Ryan 9.2% 18.3%
Santorum 5.5% 8%
Walker 3.5% N/A
West N/A 5%

 

INDEPENDENTS:

0.91% chance of winning Congress in 2014

Only looking at those without "N/As" at the moment it is looking like Hillary Clinton vs Chris Christie with Clinton winning.

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