Election Center

ASSC Studios Official Election Center 

Sporkdate 3902.19649 (November 2)

Here we are less than a day out before the Ameripocalypse. We have the overall and the "adjusted." We can hope!

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Candidate Chance of Winning
Biden 49.68%
Trump 48.72%
Hawkins 0.89%
Jorgensen 0.96%
Blakenship 0.16%

Since last week Biden has a very slight drop while Trump and Jorgensen both have very slight raises. Let's hope it's not high enough for Trump. He needs to go. Good luck tomorrow America, though it may not be over until Friday...at the earliest. Stay tuned here and our instagram tomorrow as we attempt hourly updates using 270towin.com updating our prediction map to each state's closing and over all winning paths.

Sporkdate: 3897.00958 (October 27, 2020)

 

One week before the Ameripocalypse and as promised an Election Center updated. On the left is over all based on polling per state and the right is "adjusted" in case polling does not take into account what it forgot to in 2016. Either way both currently a predicted Biden win.

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Candidate Chance of Winning
Biden 49.75%
Trump 48.66%
Hawkins 0.89%
Jorgensen 0.92%
Blakenship 0.16%

Since eaerlier this month Biden has dropped verly slightly under the 50% mark. Not much but hopefully it's not too much. Trump saw an unfortuante slight increase. Hawkins and Blakenship have stayed the same while Jorgensen has also seen a sligh increase. Aimming for the next update to be in 6 days right before it all ends...

 

 

Sporkdate: 3877.12524 (October 4, 2020)

I know I promised an update yesterday but things got busy. It was actually a good thing I couldn't finish yesterday as I found an article today of how to adjust polls to account for the "mistake" made in 2016 polling. In the data I use and how I use it it would only change Arizona still prompting a Biden win. Assuming polls are weighted properly in 2020 no major change since Tuesday. It's doubtful any of these numbers contain polling since the start of a certain COVID infection and resulting hospitalization. We will see how and if this causes any major change on the next update which I'm aiming to be October 27.

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Candidate Chance of Winning
Biden 50.35%
Trump 48.17%
Hawkins 0.89%
Jorgensen 0.73%
Blakenship 0.16%

 

Since Tuesday Biden has climbed over the 50% mark (barely) for a chance of winning. Trump's over all odds have decreased extremely slightly as has Jorgensen's. Hawkins has also shown a decline in election probability. Please note that on the previous update a "leftover" specalative Independent Candidate was still present. This candidate has been removed as they currently are not officially runing and the data I use currently shows no major independent candidate currently running. If one was running their chance would indeed be 7.73%.

Sporkdate: 3867.59861 (September 29, 2020 Debate #1)

The first debate is currently going on and I'm sure they're already at each other's throats. This took a bit and if all goes well there will be another update here in 4 days so probably longer post/rant then. Currently predicting Biden with 319 electoral votes to Trump's 219.

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Candidate Chance of Winning
Biden 49.8%
Trump 48.63%
Scarborough 7.91%
Hawkins 0.92%
Jorgensen 0.74%
Blakenship 0.16%

Of course all of this depends on if the Republicans actually let the mail in ballots be counted. Oh and if Trump doesn't pull off anything shady like paying for recounts to happen in several close states until the Electoral Votes are officially counted forcing a Supreme Court ruling after he stacks the bench in his favor....We're screwed aren't we?

March 3, 2020 (Super Tuesday)

Finally!  It is here!  I know it took forever but you can thank the Working Families Party for that.  Finding election data on them was a pain at best.  Ok so let's see with hours left on Super Tuesday we have whoever the Democrat winner is (I'll find that out myself when I type it below) will get 308 Electoral votes (currently) to Trump's 230 (currently).  Again assuming he's the Republican choice (which I assume he will be).  Ok now the write ups seeing as Super Tuesday ends in like 90 minutes.

Democrats:

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Biden 35.65% 37.22%
Bloomberg 25.22% 9.7%
Gabbard 13.23% 1.27%
Patrick 13.7% 3.67%
Sanders 27.9% 30.98%
Warren 28.25% 26.23%

Republicans:

Candidate Primary Chance Election Center
De La Fuenta 1.42% 0%
Ely 0% 0%
Istvan 0% 6%
Trump 50.68% 47.33%
Weld 6.66% 0%

All right I am purposely avoiding Super Tuesday results with the last polls closing in an hour now.  At the moment it's looking like a Biden vs Trump Election.  Most likely electoral prediction is the picture but as we see over all Trump has a better chance of winning the election.  I'm sure these results will start to get closer after the conventions.  Also please note NONE of the final primary results have been taken into account.  Next update for sure.

February 3, 2020 (Mini Update, Iowa Only)

Finally after almost two years an Election Center update.  Almost.  See I had it in my head for whatever dumb reason that the Iowa Caucus was tomorrow but it's today.  Since it's today not tomorrow I was only able to finish Iowa not do a national general election for a real election center update.  I mean I will post my results for each candidates' (that has pollable numbers in Iowa) chances of winning Iowa in November (which also gives an order of who will probably win tonight, though Bloomberg is off because there isn't many poll with him so he's way to inflated) as a mini election center update but no big general election update.  I will however have enough time to post on February 10 the day before the New Hampshire Primary.  So catch you all then.

Here's predictions for Iowa:
Democrat Caucus: Biden
Republican Caucus: Trump
Chances of Winning Iowa in November:

Biden Bloomberg Buttigieg Gabbard Klobuchar Sanders
24.33% 23.5% 17.36% 1.81% 6.34% 21.84%
Steyer Warren Yang Trump Walsh Weld
3.21% 19.84% 3.57% 53.16% 2% 7%

 

April 29, 2018

Well nothing has changed with the electoral map since last time so you can all scroll down and read my rant from then.  Once you're done here are the new polling numbers:

DEMOCRATS: 

41.45% chance of winning Congress in 2018
36.82% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Biden 48.34% 39.86%
Blumenthal N/A 42%
Booker 21.17% 26.05%
Brown (J) 54% N/A
Brown (S) 35% N/A
Clifford (Daniels) N/A 37%
Castro 4% N/A
Clinton N/A 18.83%
Cooper 43% N/A
Cuban 47% 39.33%
Cuomo 8% 2.67%
Delaney 0% 38%
Franken N/A 24.17%
Garceti 47.5% N/A
Gillibrand 21.69% 21.23%
Hanks 53.5% N/A
Harris 20% 27.94%
Hickenlooper 1.5% N/A
Holder 38% N/A
Johnson N/A 42%
Kander N/A 4%
Kennedy 3% 25%
Klobuchar 5.88% 1.25%
Landrieu 36% N/A
McAuliffe N/A 1.67%
Obama (Michelle) 57% 38.2%
O'Malley 10% N/A
Patrick 34% N/A
Ryan 0.33% 1%
Sandberg 4% N/A
Sanders 40.75% 36.68%
Schultz 1% N/A
Warren 42.26% 32.35%
Wilson N/A 48.11%
Winfrey 46% 17.67%
Zuckerberg 24% 39.5%


REPUBLICANS:

56.85%% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
43.07%% Chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Cotton 5% 1%
Cruz 7% 13.78%
Flake 16% 8.5%
Gowdy N/A 1%
Haley N/A 4%
Kasich 33.56% 14%
Pence 27% 25.13%
Powell N/A 0%
Romney N/A 5%
Rubio N/A 5%
Ryan N/A 1%
Sasse N/A 14.5%
Trump 42.83% 48.72%

 

INDEPENDENTS:

0.85% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.9% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Election Chance
Scarborough 18%

LIBERTARIANS:

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
2.51% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Amash N/A 13.03%
Byrne N/A 0%
Campbell N/A 3.63%
Foster N/A 0%
Ince N/A 3%
Istvan N/A 6%
Johnson N/A 7%
Kerbel N/A 2.3%
Kokesh N/A 5.22%
Lowe N/A 0%
McAfee N/A 3%
McCormick N/A 0%
Miron N/A 4.1%
Paul N/A 29.5%
Perry N/A 1%
Petersen N/A 22.5%
Ruwart N/A 2.8%
Sanford N/A 1%
Sarwark N/A 16%
Schiff N/A 8.1%
Sharpe N/A 25.38%
Ventura N/A 3.5%
Weld N/A 7.67%

GREEN:

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.00% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

WORKING FAMILIES

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.01% chance of winning White House in 2020

Again not much changed.  Overall slight gains to the Democrats, Working Families, and Independents with slight losses to the GOP.  There were also very tiny losses to the Dems and tiny gains to the GOP.  Biggest gains and losses in primaries.  Speaking of which most likely primary winners are Michelle Obama for the Dems and Trump the yelling tangerine for the GOP.  This would still surprisingly be a victory for the tangerine, I'm guessing because Michelle Obama isn't actually going to run.  Looking at the general election potentials it's Wilson on the Dems vs Trump on the GOP which would also grant a re-election somehow though it is slight and would probably come down to the electoral votes which shows a Democratic victory, yay.  Overall however the GOP still has the better chance to win, nay.

February 25, 2018

I assume everyone should be sworn in by now from all of the fall elections.  Between that and still waiting to figure out the 2000th comic figure it'd be a good time to update the election center.  If the next update is after April hopefully you won't have to pay your ISP more money to visit ASSC Studios.  If you're just as afraid of that as we are check out these guys and contact your Senators and Representatives at the federal, state, and local levels to tell the FCC to go pound sand.  With that out of the way, we are still slowly seeing the electoral map coming out of its historical data.  As a great man (vampire?) one said "Oh hai"....uh...California.  I see you're back to blue which everyone knows you'll be in 2020.  However it's now looking like the purple state of North Carolina is now red.  I'm expecting more of the west coast and New England to turn more blue while the South turns more red the next time I update.  I'm sure you're expecting that as well.  Before I continue with this digression let's see what the rest of our predictions say:

DEMOCRATS: 

41.45% chance of winning Congress in 2018
36.64% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Biden 42.5% 39.81%
Blumenthal N/A 42%
Booker 13.5% 26%
Castro 4% N/A
Clinton N/A 20.8%
Cooper 43% N/A
Cuban 47% 39.33%
Cuomo 8% 2.67%
Delaney 0% 38%
Franken N/A 24.17%
Garceti 46% N/A
Gillibrand 21.63% 19.5%
Hanks 56% N/A
Harris 19% 28.57%
Hickenlooper 2% N/A
Johnson N/A 42%
Kander N/A 4%
Kennedy N/A 25%
Klobuchar 5.75% 1.25%
McAuliffe N/A 1.5%
Obama (Michelle) N/A 38.2%
O'Malley 10% N/A
Ryan 1% 1%
Sandberg 4% N/A
Sanders 40.75% 36.9%
Schultz 1% N/A
Warren 41.61% 32.69%
Wilson N/A 48.88%
Winfrey 47% 21%
Zuckerberg 26% 39.5%


REPUBLICANS:

56.96%% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
45.42%% Chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Cotton N/A 1%
Cruz N/A 15.38%
Flake N/A 8.5%
Haley N/A 4%
Kasich 46.5% 15.56%
Pence 27% 28.57%
Romney N/A 5%
Rubio N/A 5%
Sasse N/A 14.5%
Trump 41.89% 48.94%

 

INDEPENDENTS:

0.84% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.9% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Election Chance
Scarborough 18%

LIBERTARIANS:

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
2.51% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Amash N/A 13.03%
Byrne N/A 0%
Campbell N/A 3.63%
Foster N/A 0%
Ince N/A 3%
Istvan N/A 6%
Johnson N/A 7%
Kerbel N/A 2.3%
Kokesh N/A 5.22%
Lowe N/A 0%
McAfee N/A 3%
McCormick N/A 0%
Miron N/A 4.1%
Paul N/A 29.5%
Perry N/A 1%
Petersen N/A 22.5%
Ruwart N/A 2.8%
Sanford N/A 1%
Sarwark N/A 16%
Schiff N/A 8.1%
Sharpe N/A 25.38%
Ventura N/A 3.5%
Weld N/A 7.67%

GREEN:

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.00% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

WORKING FAMILIES

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.01% chance of winning White House in 2020

The Democrats' chances of winning Congress have improved slightly however their chances for the White House unfortunately have gone down but then again so have the Republicans'.  The Independents' chances also went down, but the Libertarians' went up.  Well with the White House at least, their chances at Congress went down.  Everyone else stayed the same.  Looking at the numbers here if we go by primary results the match-up is Tom Hanks for the Democrats and John Kasich for the Republicans with Tom Hanks winning.  Seriously?  We haven't learned that celebrities can't be president?  I know we all love Tom Hanks but come on everyone Trump proves no more celebrities as politicians.  Let's see what the popular votes show.  That gives us Frederica Wilson for the Democrats, yelling tangerine er I mean Donald Trump for the Republicans (speaking of not learning), and Rand Paul for the Libertarians.  This one would be extremely close but somehow it would still go the maniac who is currently sitting in the White House.  Looks like we're doomed again America!

November 26, 2017

We had an off year election semi-recently so I figured it'd be a good time to update the election center before the FCC rules you can't come to ASSC Studios without paying more money to your ISP.  Hell the amount of parody we do on the government and corporations they'll probably just ban ASSC from the states completely because apparently Democracy and Fascism are now synonymous. *ahem* Slowly we are starting to swing historical data.  Unfortunately the new data only seems to be swinging purple states and Kentucky but let's face it we know how Kentucky is going to vote in 2020.  If you think I'm wrong just think which letter Kentucky starts with.  Seriously really think about it.  Who helped get the yelling tangerine into office?  Yeah I'm saying white supremacists support Trump.  (I'm apparently really begging the FCC to destroy Net Neutrality to get ASSC Studios banned aren't I)?  Regardless if it's just the purple states showing moving data (along with the Great Commonwealth of Kentuckistan) it's a swing the right direction.  Unfortunately it's probably not going to continue as it seems that more Democrats than Republicans are unable to keep in their pants though there are some Republicans that can't *cough* Moore *cough* Trump *cough* but hey as we found out last year the American people are stupid sheep that gravitate to the loudest person in the room and since a certain yelling tangerine is ignoring the Republican accusations we're probably still boned.  But hey this map shows otherwise!  Let's see what our predictions say:

DEMOCRATS: 

40.92% chance of winning Congress in 2018
36.77% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Biden 24% 38.5%
Blumenthal N/A 42%
Booker 17% 29.83%
Castro 4% N/A
Clinton N/A 24%
Cuban N/A 39.33%
Cuomo 8% 2.83%
Delaney 0% 38%
Gillibrand 2% 23.5%
Franken N/A 24.17%
Harris 2% 41.5%
Hickenlooper 2% N/A
Johnson N/A 42%
Klobuchar 6% N/A
Obama (Michelle) N/A 40%
O'Malley 10.5% N/A
Ryan 1% N/A
Sandberg 4% N/A
Sanders 31% 39.19%
Schultz 1% N/A
Warren 13% 37.33%
Winfrey N/A 47%
Zuckerberg 2% 39%


REPUBLICANS:

58.04% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
49.03% Chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Cotton N/A 1%
Cruz N/A 16.33%
Kasich 46.5% 16.86%
Pence 27% 33.4%
Sasse N/A 14.5%
Trump 43.5% 50.11%

 

INDEPENDENTS:

0.87% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.91% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Election Chance
Scarborough 18%

LIBERTARIANS:

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
2.49% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Amash N/A 13.03%
Byrne N/A 0%
Campbell N/A 4.45%
Johnson N/A 7%
Kerbel N/A 3.45%
Kokesh N/A 4.28%
McAfee N/A 3%
McCormick N/A 0%
Miron N/A 5.65%
Paul N/A 29.5%
Perry N/A 1%
Petersen N/A 22.5%
Ruwart N/A 2.8%
Sanford N/A 1%
Sarwark N/A 16%
Schiff N/A 8.2%
Sharoe N/A 25.38%
Ventura N/A 3.5%
Weld N/A 8.5%

GREEN:

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.00% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

WORKING FAMILIES

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.01% chance of winning White House in 2020

Unfortuatntely it looks like it's already starting where the percentages are showing something different than the map.  Last time this happened we got the Ameripocalypse.  But we are still three years out so hopefully we are not as boned as the numbers say we are.  Looking at the numbers and factoring the whole primary thing it's looking like a race of Sanders, Kasich, Scarborough, and...uh...no clear winner for the Libertarian primaries so let's just pick Paul with the biggest chance.  If this is the case (very unlikely FYI though I'm sure everyone is hoping for this scenario both left and right) it's a Sanders victory (map is right).  If we just look at the full national numbers (which going from last years seem to be the most accurate) it's Winfrey and Trump instead for the Democratic and Republican tickets.  Oh boy two TV personalities going head to head because we're not a laughing stock already.  But I digress, per usual.  If this is the case Trump wins (numbers are right).  Next planned update is end of January/beginning of February.  If we still have a country by then.  

 

May 1, 2017

It's been awhile since the Ameripocalypse now that we are done licking our wounds...well not really we still are.  Well half of us are...well technically 2/3 of us are.  Yeah Trump's approval ratings are in the toilet.  Protests every other day, scandals and flubs every day, trampling the Constitution, bill of rights, freedom, and liberty thanks a lot swings states and right wing radicals.  Anywho.....so I was wrong the last time by a few states because blah blah fake news blah blah blah.  Actually because we do our system electorally he really only won by a few thousand and I was predicting a win for him though electorally showed otherwise.  PLUS most polling is done where there are more people, more people live in cities, cities are usually more Democratic so in the sense the polls were slightly biases so hopefully more polling will be done in the exurbs in 2020.  With that said I have the above.  As you can see there is not much data in so it's mostly biased based on historical data which is why the south is blue and the north is red.  Plus the democrats are more split than with just Trump on the GOP.  Here are some predictions:

DEMOCRATS: 

41.54% chance of winning Congress in 2018
43.81% chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Biden N/A 38.5%
Booker 17% 15.71%
Castro 4% N/A
Clinton N/A 12.5%
Cuban N/A 40%
Cuomo 8% 3%
Gillibrand 3% N/A
Franken N/A 24.5%
Harris 3% N/A
Klobuchar 11% N/A
O'Malley 18% N/A
Sanders 4% 29.67%
Schultz 1% N/A
Warren N/A 24.63%
Winfrey N/A 47%


REPUBLICANS:

57.34% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
47.63% Chance of winning White House in 2020

Candidate Primary Chance Election Chance
Trump N/A 41.5%


INDEPENDENTS:

0.87% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.72% chance of winning White House in 2200

LIBERTARIANS:

0.49% chance of winning White House in 2020

GREEN:

0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

So there you have it we're currently still boned.  The Democrats currently aren't listening to their own reports of why and how they lost and are thinking it was a turn out issue when really it was more of a turn over from the working class.  Oops.  So it's a pretty good chance that they still won't win Congress in 2018, hopefully they'll finally get their act together in 2020 so the above doesn't happen.  In the mean time if we ignore the Democrats with N/As the most probable chance is Booker v Trump.  Let's just hope there's a country in 2020.

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