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2012 Primaries

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Category: Election Center

Last Updated: Monday, 05 September 2016 23:20

Published: Thursday, 06 September 2012 00:53

Hits: 1869

Major Candidates: 
Goode (Constitution) 0% chance of winning projected to win 7% of popular vote [in VA]
Johnson (Libertarian) 4.33% chance of winning projected to win 1.575% of popular vote
Obama (Democrat) 48.244% chance of winning projected winner with 49.674% of popular vote
Romney (Republican) 33.494% chance of winning projected to win 38.118% of popular vote
Stein (Green) 0% chance of winning projected to win 3% of popular vote [in MA]
Terry (Independent) 24% chance of winning projected to win 9.365% of popular vote

August 25, 2012 (based on 8/20/12 results)

Now that I have time and the primaries are over with in all states (and seeing as the RNC starts Monday) here is the current results.  Unfortunately Obama has lost North Carolina but luckily he is still hanging on.  I will attempt to update for the conventions, cleaning up this page and moving everything currently here to it's own Primaries Section as I had done previous with "Prior to Primaries."  Above is the updated candidates, well at least the major ones.  I figured it didn't make much sense to put it everyone (about 30 people) who was running seeing as most did not have a chance.  So anyone who had above 0% I put above.  Unless otherwise stated the mentioned popular vote is national so yeah go Obama!  Of course some of you may be wondering who Terry is and why he has such a high chance of winning being an Indpendent.  You see seeing as the South mysteriously hates Obama for whatever reason a lot of Souther Democratic voters voted for Terry during the Democratic primaries so he has a chance to steal souther votes from Obama.  Let's just hope that Mitt Romney loses.

You may be wondering where all the candidates for all of the parties went, the short answer is that due to the third parties it needs to be updated.  I also realized I have forgotten some pieces of data for a final tally of popular votes.  As for my margin of error I am ignoring that for now because of the GOP primaries being down to 2 candidates it has just become unreasonable.  If it wasn't for Rick Santorum's gain for those few months then sudden drop out last month it probably would be much lower.  As we can see from the recent electoral maps Obama continues to lose southern states, now with the not surprsing loss of South Carolina.  As long as he can hang on Virgina, the northen and western states, and midwest and rust belt he should be fine.  Romney's speculative VP candidates are rumored to be from mainly battleground states but several that are from red states.  Let's hope he picks from the candidates from the red states.

May 7, 2012 (May 16, 2012)

There were some minor issues with this page (maps were not displaying) which took awhile to fix.  The map above is accurate the percentages are still from March 30.  Due to Rick Santorum's drop out margin of error has skyrocketed again thanks to Santorum to a staggering +/-13.1%!  Uhg!  Hopefully with Santorum gone this will stop happening.  Go figure he drops out as soon as my numbers started to level out after he jumped in popularity.  Whatever, Obama is still in the lead and is currently still the front runner.  Mitt Romney is just bad for America's middle class (as well as youth, women, LBGT community, poor, non-whites, non-Christians, and those whose first language was not English).

March 30, 2012

Still an Obama victory.  Good for America bad for Republicans.  Once again thanks to the Santorum surge my margin of error is a painful +/-11.6%.  Hopefully with the following primaries and what not on April 4 this will go down.  (Well probably not by too much as I have no polling data for DC so therefore everything is set to 0% that'll destroy my margin of error for sure).  So good people of DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin please do not vote for Rick Santorum (not that you really want to anyway usually swinging blue and all but unfortunately we do need a Republican candidate).

Maryland Predictions: Gingirch 12%, Paul 7%, Romney 49%, Santorum 33.5% (Ok Maryland a third of you can vote for Santorum)

Wisconsin Predictions: Gingrich 19.19%, Paul, 13.25%, Romney 29.84%, Santorum 30.83% (Ok Wisconsin you can vote for Santorum)

Please note the above was NOT an endorsement for Rick Santorum we here at ASSC Studios support Barack Obama.  Rick Satnroum is a douche.

March 21, 2012

Not much has changed percentage wise except my margin of error which is now at +/-9.24.  I way underestimated Romney's win and per usual Rick Santorum's final numbers.  With new data in Obama loses a few more states.  By next update I'm guessing we'll see no more winning in South Carolina and probably Iowa too.  His current bare minimum is 272 (talk about your close eletions).  My predictions for Louisiana are Gingrich 18.26%, Paul 6.27%, Romney 16%, and Santorum 6.63% (I have a feeling that my margin of error is going to skyrocket after that).  The 24th is the same day the Missouri Caucus ends which I predict will be Gingrich 26.82%, Paul 18,6%, Romney 29.37%, and Santorum 34.53%.  If Gingrich wins Louisiana I see him staying in until April 24 when Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote if he loses he may stay in through Wisconsin on April 4th but he will be gone by the 24th.  Meanwhile Sanotrum and Romney will continue to tear the GOP apart which is fine.  A fractured Republican Party by their convention in August means there will be no GOP win in November.  If Gingrich does lose Louisiana I see Santorum winning it then on the 24 he will win Pennsylvania but Romney will win the other three (though I would not be surprised if Santorum wins New York).  But then again we will see once I post my updated predictions around those dates.  I will most likely update on March 30 for the Wisconsin race.

March 19, 2012

Current margin of error is currently +/-8.84%.  Nothing has changed electorial wise which is a good thing because Obama is still winning.  For that apparent "major" primiary in Illinois tomorrow Gingrich 15.64%, Paul 8.09%, Romney 30.4%, Santorum 21.58%.  I am planning to update Wednesday for the few pirmaries and caucuses on Saturday.

March 5, 2012

Not going to update the candidates just a quick update.  As you see the map remained the same from last time.  I'm thinking at least South Carolina will go to the GOP in November.  The good news is he can still lose Florida, North Carolina, Virgina, Misssouri, Ohio, and Arizona. At least two of those states I don't think he will lose (which is good as I doubt he'll win Iowa).  I think this is humorous beacause the GOP keep saying they need Ohio to win but even with Ohio they still lose.  Anywho my predictions for super Tuesday *deep breath*

AK: Gingrich 16, Paul, 10, Romney 18, Santorum 0.26
GA: 37.52, 6.43, 22.58, 18.19
MA: 17.25, 13, 47.5, 16.25
OK: 23.45, 6.7, 18.73, 23.71
TN: 21.6, 9.11, 29.56, 31
VT: 7.5, 7.5, 27.5, 0
VA: 24.36, 17.64, 38.09, 19.1
AL: 43, 4.25, 15.33, 1
MS: 35, 13, 26.2, 1
MO: 26.82, 18.6, 28.28, 32.17
IL: 17.63, 6.2, 21.52, 1.23
LA: 18, 5.33, 15.17, 0.35

Yes I realize that there was some issues with the ballots in Virgina but if all 4 candidates were on the ballot this is what I'm guessing it would have been at.  So that and the Santorum predictions should screw over my margin of error quite a but which is now only +/-6.59%.  Oh and I hope everyone realizes the order of Gingrich, Paul, Romney, Santorum continued through all of those states.  These are only predictions for the GOP Primaries and Caucuses tomorrow not the Democratic ones.

February 28, 2012

I would just like to point out (probably again) that the people want the Republican Party to win however they do not want any of the Republican candidates.  The good news is that means victory for Obama that bad news is that may mean GOP victory in Congress however with Congressional approval ratings at 9% and the majority of the House being Republicans let's hope this means the voters will vote their GOP incumbents out.  The trend also continues of as we approach the election less states become blue.  However the only way the GOP will win it is if they decide to go more towards the center of the political spectrum and try not to get support from only from their baseline voters (White English Speaking Upper Class Heterosexual Christian Males).  Ok now for my predictions for Arizona and Michigan tomorrow.
Arizona: Gingrich 22.77%, Paul 12.78%, Romney 38.42%, Santorum 46.25%
Michigan: Gingrich 16.48%, Paul 11.71%, Romney 34%, Sanotrum 30.98%
Due to Santorum coming out of nowhere and my end of 2011 predictions showing him usually below 5th place my margin of error has skyrocketed +/-13.31% after the Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri Primaries/Caucuses.  Hopefully due to his recent gain in popularity my margin of error will shrink back down to below 10%, though below 5% would be opitmal.

February 7, 2012

New electoral map posted I will update the rest tomorrow along with my margin off error and we will see how I faired with the Colorado and Minnesota Primaries (and I guess the Missouri Cacucus too).

January 19, 2012

For now ignore the numbers I will update them tomorrow.  I am just quickly posting the results prior to the SC primary before I go to bed.  As you see with Perry and Huntsman gone the GOP get some more states.  My margin of error is no +/- 7.29%.  For New Hampshire I predicted Romney would get 39.01% he got 39.3% (that's damn good if I do say so myself), predicted Paul would get 13.92% he got 22.9% (could be way better), and lastly Huntsman I predicted would 13.42% when he got 16.9% (not too bad).  Like I said I will update the new results, candidates, and add more to this entry tomorrow.  In the meand time go write your Senators and House Representative to say no to SOPA and PIPA! JAN 20 UPDATE: Ok so here are the numbers.  Please note the numbers given above is the likelhood of the person or party winning the election.  What's odd is that at the moment the GOP has a most likely chance of winnning but Obama is the most likely person to win.  This actually compares to other polls which show that people want Obama gone but they would rather him than any of the GOP candidates.  So it looks like it's Obama because the GOP has horrible candidates (it's sad when Ron Paul is your sanist candidate).  And now my predictions for South Carolina: Romney 1st 31.08%, Gingrich 2nd 24.8%, Santorum 10.55%, Paul 10.52%, and Stephen Colbert with 8%.  Now only if Colbert would start campaigns in other states...

January 10, 2012

Today is the New Hampshire primaries and I actually remembered to update my data before they ended.  As you can see the GOP has lost some gorund.   My guess is that this has something to do with SOPA and Enemy Expatriation Act (because let's face it, Lieberman is not a Democrat, he proved that in 2008 he's proving it again in 2012).  I'm taking this that people are fed up with the GOP trying to take their rights (and internet) away from them.  My predictions for the top three in New Hampshire tonight is as follows: Romney 1st 39.01%, Gingrich 2nd 15.43%, Paul 3rd 13.92% still with a huge margin of error +/- 10.413%.  I'm hoping this will go down for the South Carolina primaries next week.  

January 4, 2012

Yeah I totally flaked with the Iowa Primaries.  Totally forgot that Iowa is first now.  Here I was thinking I had time becasue New Hampshire is January 10.  Oops.  Well these are the results from December.  As we know Bachmann is out (thank her God).  I would just like to note that my numbers gave Romney 22% of the Iowa vote and he got 24.55%, Santorum had 4.45% and got 24.54%, and Paul had 12.76% and got 21.45%.  I guess I was close with Romney at least.  From thise I can assume that my numbers are accurate within +/- 10.413% which is a HUGE margin of error.  I'm really hoping I can close this gap by November.

Sanity & Fear Video Game-a-thon

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Category: Election Center

Last Updated: Monday, 05 September 2016 23:20

Published: Tuesday, 19 October 2010 01:57

Hits: 2030

Can't make it the Rally to Restore Sanity or the March to Keep Fear Alive?* Well then ASSC Studios has you covered! We are hosting a live (once we find a new live streaming video provider) video game-a-thon! How will this work exactly? Well I have no clue but it will defiantly involve playing video games. Below is what ASSC Studios has fudged to create such an event. So get your thumbs, joysticks, controllers, keyboards, mobile devices, and motion sensor devices ready so you can pretend you're being a part of what Stephen Colbert* says will be the biggest bowel movement of our generation.

We must admit and we must know that both of these great comedians, Jon Stewart* and Stephen Colbert*, (who the ASSC Studios staff, cast, and crew all have great respect and admiration for) are having this rally/march (let's face it it's the same thing, Colbert is just staying in character) to piss off and mach the Tea Party (and probably the Republicans too but the GOP seems to be weaning out their teabaggers so we'll leave them out of this for now).  We know you want to go.  We know you want to show support for these comic greats.  We know you want to go to make fun of the Tea Party.  We know you actually realize that the people in power are not the people that brought us into this mess but instead are being fought and stopped every step of the way to fix the mess by those who caused it.  We also know that you have no money and can't make it to DC (and if you are going to DC then congrats, enjoy yourself) and you still want to participate in something on that day you just don't know what.

Well all of you out there who can't make it to DC that want to you're in luck because the Staff of ASSC Studios have come up with a solution, have our own event on the same time starting at the same time as the Sanity and Fear rally and march.  More information will be provided below but if you do decided on participating in our event that Stewart* and Colbert* have no idea we're doing in honor of them (we swear) we encourage you to have your own online events and if you wish you can submit where your live event will be located here and we will reference it or link to or something once we figure our who our new live streaming video provider will be since we will no longer be dealing with Stickam.  Also feel free to live chat with us and/or send us pictures of your event before/during/after our event.

1) When is the Sanity & Fear Video Game-a-thon?

ASSC Studios will begin our video game-a-thon starting at noon on October 30, 2010 (coinciding with the start of the DC march/rally*).  It will end around 11:30 pm that same day.  If you wish to watch come any time from noon to 11:30pm, we suggest after 3pm as we encourage you all to watch the live broadcasts of what Jon Stewart* and Stephen Colbert* are doing in DC.  We suggest you start your own game-a-thon around the same time and we ask if you do have your own please send us the link to your live feed so we can link it here and mention it during ours, you don't have to but we figured we'd ask.

2) Where will the Sanity & Fear Video Game-a-thon be hosted?

justin.tv/asscstudios  not our old live hosting site of stickam.com due to technical difficulties we were experiencing during our failed attempt of an Early Early Late Show on October 9, 2010.  The broadcast will also be seen on ASSC Studios' main page hosted by justin.tv/asscstudios

3) Will I need to make an account to view the live feed?

No, you don't have to make an account if you don't want to. 

4) Can I make donations to ASSC Studios to help you guys out?

We don't want any but if you really want to throw your money at us we're not going to stop you.  Your best bet if you wish to support ASSC Studios with monetary funds is to scroll to the top of this page and on the left column under where it says "Main Menu" you'll see a link that says stores.  You will be brought to another page with 4 buttons that will bring you to one of our 4 different ASSC Studios stores.

5) Where can I get more information on this event?

Well the front page of the site obviously but you can also follow us on twitter, check out the ASSC Studios Facebook page, or join the Sanity & Fear Facebook event.  But your best bet is probably this page on the site (or the front page) so bookmark it.

6) How can I be part of this event?

Easy, play video games (see below).  We would also like to encourage you to provide us with the links to your own live feed for your video game-a-thon or depending on what service we get for our live feed to live chat with us.  Either way we will make mention of you.  Also feel free to send in your pictures of your event during our event.  We will show off the appropriate ones and make reference to the inappropriate ones.

7) How can I spread the word of the video game-a-thon?

Well I'm sure we will make another store before the 23 so you can get Sanity & Fear Video Game-a-thon merchandise.  Also we made a downloadable poster (top of this page) for you to post where ever your wish.  Suggestion if you post it please make it visabel for other to see it but please make sure it's in a safe location and not a distraction hazard.

8) How can I get timely updates about the video game-a-thon?

Our twitter feed.  twitter.com/asscstudios it's updated almost daily and I'm sure as we do more for this event and as it draws closer we will update it even more.

9) Hey it's the day before Halloween so can I wear a costume on my own live event?

Of course you can!  Obviously it makes the most sense if you dress as a video game character but we won't complain otherwise.  If you are doing this please, please, please send us your live feed, live chat us, and/or send us pics.  We WILL defiantly post them, link them, and make mention of them.

10) Can I make signs to either tell people about this event or for the event itself?

That's fine just keep them tactful and respectful.  If you're going to do this we suggest the sign has something to do with video games, willingness to restore sanity to our country, and uh, um...fear?  Also, don't forget to include the url of ASSC Studios (www.asscstudios.net), the date (10-30-10), and time (Noon to 11:30pm).  Also we'd love to see the signs our fans make so if you wish email it to us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and we will present it during our live event.

11) Can I use the sign/graphics provided by ASSC Studios to publicize this event?

Yes and no.  Please only use any graphics or pre-made signs we have posted here on this page only. 

12) Will there be any more graphics added by ASSC Studios for potential signs?

Everything that's been posted has been if you don't like what you see here go to the facebook event page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/event.php?eid=168306333181295

13) Will this event be publicized to the media?

Though Stewart* and Colbert* seem like great guys and seem like the type of people who wouldn't care that some unknown website is supporting them in their own crazy way it's doubtful that large corporation like Viacom* would be as understanding so no we are not going to publicize this much past our website, twitter, and facebook.  Plus here at ASSC Studios we feel that the media are the reasons why sanity needs to be restored to our nation and why sanity needs to be restored and why we are so fearful to begin with. 

14) How many spots will be open  to live chat with ASSC Studios during this event?

We have no idea as we are still trying to figure out how justin.tv does everything so I guess we'll find out on the 30th.

15) How will I be able to send my live feed, pictures, video, links, etc., to ASSC Studios?

If you will be having your own video game-a-thon and would like to send us the link to your live feed, pictures of your event, YouTube videos, small video files, facebok or twitter posts, links to your own website, etc. the best bet is our GMail account which is This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. second best option is to post something our the facebook event page, third is to send us a message on twitter, fourth and the worse way is to post a message on the ASSC Studios group wall.

16) What video games will ASSC Studios be playing/what should I play?

Below is a list of games we think make sense to be played.  This list is just a suggestion just remember this video game-a-thon is to promote sanity and to make people aware of fear.  We have also taken random quotes from the comedians (such as Stephen Colbert* once making refernces to hedgehog being a threat to America) into account for games to be played.

20) Can I sell merchandise to promote my video game-a-thon?

Sure.  If you want you can send us the links so you have a better chance of people buying it.  We suggest you either use Cafepress or Zazzle to make merchandise quick or if you're really creative make your own stuff on home and sell it on ebay.  Just make sure what you sell doesn't violate any copyright laws.  On that note Cafepress has a very strange and hard ass approach to copyright laws so anything tat may look remote similar to a copyrighted item or makes the slightest reference to one they'll probably take it down.

21) How do I view ASSC Studios's live event?

Wither come right to www.asscstudios.net or go to justin.tv/asscstudios

22) What if I'm traveling to DC for the real deal that day?

Then we envy you and encourage you to have fun in DC and to ignore us.  If you're bored after 3pm just come to ASSC Studios as the event is going on until 11:30pm.

23) What if I won't be near an internet connection?

The site should be good for handheld devices and it is assumed that most live streaming video providers are handheld friendly as well if you really want to view the ASSC Studios Video Game-a-thon

24) What if my handheld has no [internet] service?

Just play video games all day then.

25) What if I don't have access to video games that day?

Go outside or read a book or something.

26) What if I don't have any access to technology at all?

Then how the hell are you reading this?

27) Will this event be recorded for future viewings?

The short answer no.  The long answer: We realize that we do record and save the Early Early Late Show when one is made however this event will be 10 hours longer than the longest Early Early Late Show and we don't want to destroy our space quota.  However, we will be recording the event so most likely at some point in the future we will cut the footage we have down to a 10 minute best of segment and post it to YouTube.  Long time fans of the site will realize it takes us forever to do such things so we will not give an exact date and time of when said video will be released. 

28) How can I get more information?

A few ways.  Follow us on twitter (twitter.com/asscstudios), email us (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.), bookmark this page and check it daily, check the ASSC Studios homepage daily (www.asscstudios.net), joint the ASSC Studios Facebook group (http://www.facebook.com/#!/group.php?gid=2210075251), or join the Sanity & Fear Video Game-a-thon event on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/#!/event.php?eid=168306333181295). 

29) What if I'm Canadian?

Be glad that you don't live in the United States and carry about your life as you normally would on a Saturday.

*ASSC Studios is in no way affiliated with the Rally to Restore Sanity, the March to Keep Fear Alive, The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, Comedy Central, MTV, Viacom, or any other related people, companies, shows, content, etc.

2012 Results Before Primaries

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Category: Election Center

Last Updated: Monday, 05 September 2016 23:20

Published: Tuesday, 10 January 2012 17:06

Hits: 1775

November 29, 2011

I was very surprised to see this result. I double and triple checked and kept coming up with the same number.  I guess people are really getting fed up with the Republican controlled house continuing to not fix everything.  What's Congress' approval ratings at now?  9%?  8%?  All I know is that if I got a 9% at a job performance review my ass would be fired so remember that November 6, 2012 and fire your constituent...except Obama because otherwise it's president Mitt Romney and all I can say if you think things are bad now just wait until we get someone in there whose campaign platform is the same as the political stances of the Church of Latter Day Saints.  As you can see I am back to 1 map.  It has been a long time since we have heard from the Tea Party (thank their God) and as for the Occupy movement well it's pretty much political suicide to side with them unfortunately though I do enjoy how Obama has been doing that subtly.  Needless to say though it is possible to see a Tea split from the GOP and an Occupy split form the Dems it's unlikely.  As November 6, 2012 grows nearer this landslide will most likely start to resemble what I predicted on February 3, 2010.  But yeah if you want things to get fixed vote out Congress, don't vote in any Tea Party supporters, support your local Occupy movement, and vote for Obama in 2012 otherwise we're screwed because we have until 2015 to fix everything otherwise the next 100 years will suck.

November 13, 2011

The top map is without a third party Tea Party and the bottom is with, at the moment it looks like the Tea Party is good for the GOP.  Next month I will add in the Occupy party so there will be three maps.  Perry has slipped and though Cain was a rising star last month (when these results are from) Romney was still the front runner.  This will be more apparent next update as several things have happened to Perry and Cain which have hurt them more besides the whole both of them being bad for America (not that Romney is much better but really with the three of them it's pretty much pick your poison and at least with Romney it's dressed up nice and properly as Mormon Kool-Aid, no offense to Mormons of course).  We will see how the recent local elections changed this map next update which I am predicting less support for the Dems in the Northeast but more in the Southwest.  Notice how that with Perry no longer being talked highly of Texas is back to blue.  Still waiting for Utah to turn red because of Romney though it may be hard for people from Utah to support someone from Massachusetts but I see them supporting Obama less.

October 3, 2011

The top map shows the current predictions for the 2012 election with the Tea Party as part of the Republican Party while the bottom shows the results with the Tea Party as a separate political party.  It's apparent that even with Governor Perry being a member of the Tea Party if the Tea Party does split it means Texas goes blue as the votes would be too divided.  Romeny is still showing a slight lead over Perry (ignoring the Tea Party for a few seconds).  Predictions for the next update is that Romeny's gains will increase due to the uproar over the name of a piece of property formerly owned by Rick Perry.  Once Romney's gain increases you will finally see Utah go red as the votes will not be as split amongst the GOP.  It's obvious the GOP is finally starting to gain ground on Obama from the last update.  As the election grows nearer we will see the vote becoming closer as people will be unsure of who to blame.  It is possible that the results of the Occupy Wall Street/US Days of Rage Protests may have a major impact on the next update.  No matter how the protests end it is probably going to spell disaster for the Republicans, possibly for the Democrats too only if Obama throws his support behind the protesters and the protestors' demand/message continues to go unheard or it ends with Wall Street/Corporate Greed coming on top.  As long as the protesters are heard and it is known that they ar fighting against corporate greed even if their movement is stopped this could be bad news for Republicans, rich incumbents, or any incumbent who received a large portion of election funds from a major Wall Street company.

September 7, 2011 (August 11, 2011)

The results are from August though I'm posting them in Septemeber due to the failed site upgrade last month.  I am not going to post the percentage of those running as I feel it a waste of time as the September results will be up within the next couple of days.  I will tell you that as of last month it was still Romney with just over 28% (Perry was only at 19% at the time) and showing Obama winning with a 48% chance.  As you can see from the August map there are a lot more red states now putting the death of bin Laden behind us.  Interestingly with a tea party as a third party Vermont goes red, without Nevada is a red state.  As Perry is a teabagger (hey they chose that name not me) it is unlikely the tea party will split off from the GOP unless Romney wins or Palin decides to "go rogue."  Either way that all spells disaster for the GOP.  When I update for September I expect a lot more red states (Utah if Romney, Texas if Perry) but then again being so fractured (especially amongst the bible belt who all love Bachman and Perry equally and hate Romney being from the North) it's possible that not much will change.

June 1, 2011

Well I guess killing Osama bin Laden is going to boost you in the polls, but damn I didn't think by that much!  It's weird how with the Tea Party the GOP receives more electoral votes (yet less popular votes).  So I guess that for this update the tea party did good?  Scratch that, I don't want it going around I put good and tea party in the same sentence.  Obama is still the most likely winner popular vote wise and obviously a land slide winner due to the death of bin Laden in May.  I predict the next time I update this will go down due to the recent reauthorization of parts of the Patriot Act.  He will probably lose the battleground states, states with or near a 50/50 GOP/DEM split and some of the more liberal states.  On the GOP front Chuck Norris is still the most likely candidate, but on a more serious note we will say it's going to be Romney.  If this is the case expect an interesting election.  You'll see the New England Sates as battle ground states as most of the South.  Let's face it Romney's from Massachusetts and New England usually votes the same and the South do not look kindly upon Northerners but they look even less kindly on Obama.  So yeah expect big changes next update!

February 27, 2011

I don't remember exactly when the results I posted today are from.  I believe they may be from some time around late January or early February 2011.  What I think is interesting to note is that the Tea Party seems not to be a viable candidate at this point.  I'm sure this will change as some 40 some odd percent of Republicans say they will vote for Palin as a third party candidate if she is not selected for the GOP ticket, which with today's results it looks like it's going to be Romney.  That is pretty  much reflected in the results as we still see many usual red states gone blue due to the split in the Republican party.  I also find it interesting that both Pauls are in the running now.  Well we'll see now won't we?  

January 18, 2011

Yeah I know it's actually January 23 but all the information is from the 18.  Other complaints I may get is that the candidates I listed are not the candidates under the respected party that has the highest percentage in winning the reason for this is that for whatever reason (people skewing results my favorite type of people in the world as I am one of them) celebrities and TV Personalities have made it to the various lists.  For example the GOP stats that I have posted claim that Chuck Norris will be the likely 2012 GOP candidate in 2012 this is highly unlikely and the most likely Republican to be selected in Tampa (at least as of January 18, 2011) is Mitt Romney.  As for the Tea Party and Glenn Beck though I would not be surprised to see him on a Tea Party Ticket (if there ever is one) as a TV personality he really is a bad choice for a candidate so Sarah Palin would be a better choice to pick to run as she is a politician.  To the top or Left are the results of the 2012 Election without the Tea Party as a third party, as you can see the Democrats win by a landslide, which funny because my results from November 25, 2010 show them losing by a landslide if there is no Tea Party as a Third Party, funny how much of a difference two months can make.  Didn't take long for the American People to starting hating the Republicans again, did it?  To the right or bottom is with the Tea Party as a third party and the Democrats still win but this time by less of a landslide.  Well this will hopefully be updated again in March where my predictions is that you will see more or the same amount of Blue up there because the GOP is just out of their minds and totally Bat Shit crazy.

November 25, 2010

I never actually uploaded these maps.  As you can see they were made just after the 2010 midterm elections where the Democrats were defeated in the House by the GOP.  To the left (or top depending on your resolution) we have a 2012 presidential election without the Tea Party as a third party.  To the right (or bottom depending on your resolution) is if the Tea Party actually manges to become a third party in that case the votes in some of the red states become so close that it's not enough to support either "conservative" party and the state defaults to the Democrats.

September 8, 2010

So apparently the Tea Party is once again not being taken seriously (thank God) and Sarah Palin is back in as a GOP candidate but Mit Romney is still in the lead.  As you can see because the Republican Party is so split there are still some obvious red states (such as Utah and Texas) that are currently showing up as Blue.  I'm still putting Michigan as red though my current numbers are showing it blue but like I keep saying Michigan got hit really hard with the recession and what happened with the big 3 US car manufacturers so I thus make it red.  I just like putting Texas Blue in hopes some super conservative Texans stumbles upon this website and it pisses them off, my thanks for George W. Bush (yes I realize he was born in Connecticut and I live there but still...we don't want him so he's yours Texas if you like it or not).  Speaking of Connecticut it's apparently red at the moment?  Probably has something to do with Linda McMahon running for Senate I'm sure that will change soon.  So not much to report otherwise.  I will update after election day 2010 then again around the beginning of January 2011, then March, June, September, Election day 2011, and January 2012 starts with monthly updates oh boy I can't wait!

June 1, 2010

Ok so because of the constant random media panics over what state is going to who in 2 and a half years and because apparently various states keep having random special elections I am going to have to start updating the election center once a quarter until the primaries in 2012 which after that I will update once a month.  But until then let's see what we have this time around.  As you can see I listed out the most likely potential candidates (banking on an Obama vs Romney election).  You may have noticed that Sarah Palin is now separate from the GOP, this is due to many polls now listing her as the Tea Party's candidate for 2012.  I guess they made some sort of impact in PA in whatever races they had there recently and now everyone is considering the Tea Party a real political party which is good for Obama.  As it stands now with a third party getting enough votes Palin will actually cost the GOP 84 votes in the election.  This is why hell will freeze over in November 2012 with Texas going blue, it'd literally be split over Romney and Palin that there wouldn't be enough votes for Texas to go either Tea or GOP meaning the Democrats win Texas the first time since 1976.  However if the Tea Party is not shown to be as strong as everyone thinks they are (which I believe is the case) then Obama loses.  All the states that would have gone to Palin now go to Romney and Texas is no longer split giving the GOP the edge.  The problem with this scenario is that Obama would have one the popular vote and if that's the case I'm dusting off my pass port and driving to Canada as fast as I can.  I can not imagine what type of problem will arrive if Obama wins the popular vote but not the electoral.  So yeah go Tea Party.  As usual I colored in the states the media began to freak out over due to various reasons these states are: Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, Hawaii, Virginia.  I doubt Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Hawaii would go red but the media has been freaking out about these states due to recent elections.  I still do not think that Michigan will go to Obama after what happened with the Auto Companies.  Same thing with Florida as they were hit rather hard in the recession and there's been a lot of resentment towards the Obama administration because of this.  Though I said the last time I updated that New England votes the same I changed the rest of New England to blue due to it only being a Media Frenzy over MA in 2012 and how it's silly putting New England states as red I mean seriously the only places more liberal than New England are New York and California.  As I close I would just like to note that Texas is not the only state that is split so much between the Tea and Republican Parties that it causes it to go blue there are several others however since they are swing states, states that a candidate narrowly one in the previous election, states split in Congress between Republican and Democratic Senators and Congressmen, or states that have been switching back and forth here on ASSC between red and blue.  Due to all of these reasons I give these states the possibility of actually swinging blue in 2012 regardless if the Tea Party actually runs a candidate or not.  One last note, I have listed Romney as the most likely potential candidate for the Republicans in 2012 if that is the case Utah will go to Romney hands down however since the primaries are two years away and there is no actual GOP candidate and due to not only the Tea Party GOP split but the split over which Republican candidate to vote for I will continue to keep Utah Blue for the time being.  The election center will be updated again around September 1, 2010,

February 3, 2010

*facepalm* You know I was really hoping that I could go all the way until the elections in November without updating the election center.  But no.  First off we had the recent special senate elections in MA where a Republican took former Senator Kennedy's seat putting the media into another tizzy saying how Obama is going to lose because of this.  Now I really, really, reallyxinfinite doubt Obama will lose New England but because there's this big fuse about the junior senator from MA I'm giving all the New England states (except Vermont because there's no way they'll ever vote Republican) to the GOP, because let's face it we all vote the same up here.  Also there's the big stink about Nevada now.  See I waited for two political frenzies for the Dems to occur before updating.  Apparently Obama keeps telling people in his speeches to not go and blow their money in Vegas.  Now you would think people would say to themselves "Gee that's a great idea" but no instead the people of Nevada took it as "Obama hates Nevada."  Really people?  Really?  Are you that stupid?  We're in a recession if you haven't noticed it's probably not a good idea to go gamble away your money at the moment.  I'm from Connecticut and if the President said that people shouldn't go to Ledyard or Uncasville to gamble away their life savings I'd take it as good advice not as the President saying he hated Connecticut.  Now I'm sure the Natives that run the casinos would probably get quite upset if the president said that but I'm sure they have enough money to buy the country back by now anyway.  Actually that sounds like an idea, sell the country back to its Native Inhabitants.  Probably would end the recession much quicker.

Beginning of 2010

All of the stats have been updated.  Though it's not looking too god for the Democrats it's looking worse for the Republicans.  President Obama still has the highest chance out of all the potential candidates in two and a half years.  And yes that Lou Dobbs that's been independent candidates is indeed that Lou Dobbs.  Now I'm kind of surprised that my current results show the Democrats taking Utah, West Virginia, and Arkansas but it is what is at the moment and I'm sure it's subject to change.  I would say Arizona and Mississippi are defiantly up in the air this election.  Arizona was a swing state in the last election and kept flipping between McCain (who is from Arizona) and Obama.  That's pretty bad that McCain almost lost his home state.  So I wouldn't be surprised if we see Arizona go blue in 2012.  Mississippi I don't know.  If Obama runs for reelection (which I'm sure he will) there would probably be an even higher turn out of African Americans (hopefully) which could in fact swing Mississippi over to blue however because they went to the GOP in 2008 it's hard to say.  Now my statistics do show the Democrats taking New Jersey, Virgina, and Michigan at the moment but as I said after the Gubernatorial Elections in NJ and VA people started freaking out that because these two states elected Republican governors they would swing right instead of left in 2012.  Now as someone from a state with a GOP governor let me tell you that has really no bearing who we vote for as CT went blue in 2008, 2004, 2000...you get the picture.  But still the media freaks out I'm going make NJ and VA red for now at least until more polling come in as November 2012 comes closer.  Now on to Michigan.  Though everything I've seen on this state indicates they will swing to the left in 2012 I just can not see this happening especially since how hard Detroit was hit after the big 3 car companies collapsed or almost collapsible whatever and how bad the state as a whole has been hit in the economic crisis (probably why Florida is red again).  One final note is that Delaware is red.  This has got to show everyone how much can change in only two months.  The election center probably won't be updated again until November after the Congressional elections so see you all in 10 months where I'm sure there will be even bigger changes.  Until then.

2009 Local & Gubernatorial Elections:

(November 5, 2009 2012 Election prediction)

It's doubtful that any of the staff of ASSC Studios has the ambition to figure out the final results of the roughly 25,000 towns in the nation many of them which held local elections in 2009.  However there were a few gubernatorial races and from what we saw both New Jersey and Virginia have voted for a new GOP governor.  Since the media is saying that this is a “wake up call for the Democrats” we just went ahead and colored New Jersey and Virginia red. The GOP apparently has some complicated evil scheme to win Ohio which probably isn’t even legal but it’s confusing so for arguments sake let’s just say Ohio goes red in 2012. There’s no way Obama can win Michigan in 2012. They were hit pretty badly by the economic collapse and unless the American car companies begin making super affordable super fuel efficient cars (which they never will) the plants are going to stay closed and the rust belt will continue to rust away. Florida was also hit rather hard from the economic collapse and it’s gotten to the point where now they’re blaming their governor for supporting Obama’s plan who in response is denying he ever agreed with Obama…ever. 28 electoral votes for the GOP.The rest of this map is just how the states went in 2008 only some of the numbers have changed as the census is next year the prediction is the numbers you see above. Since the presidential election was only a year ago from when this article was written we can only assume this is how it will play out in 2012, three years from now. As you can see at the moment we predict a tie. Oh boy riots and looting. It’s been awhile since we’ve had a good riot in this country, and no we’re not counting and George W. Bush administration protest or any teabaggers er, uh, “Tea Party” members rather. But from the statistics provided when this article was written (November 5, 2009) Obama has a 46.31% chance of winning while the Republican with the most percentage of winning is Sarah Palin with only 17.62%. As a whole the GOP statistically has a 3.78% chance of winning but this number is sure to go up once everyone officially decides to run which will probably be around the mid-term elections of 2010. However it should be noted that the Dems only have a 23.78% chance of winning but that’s only because of the 1.25% chance Hillary Clinton will win (yes there are still people out there who believe she’s going to run and win in 2012). But please note that at the moment though still a small percentage the Democrats are still ahead by 20% of the Republicans. So from this data we’ve collected thus far you can predict who we think that Congress (or another illegal vote from the Supreme Court) will decide in favor of in 2012 if rioting…er…a tie is to occur.

Election Center

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Category: Election Center

Last Updated: Tuesday, 03 November 2020 02:22

Published: Wednesday, 04 November 2009 18:56

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ASSC Studios Official Election Center 

Sporkdate 3902.19649 (November 2)

Here we are less than a day out before the Ameripocalypse. We have the overall and the "adjusted." We can hope!

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Since last week Biden has a very slight drop while Trump and Jorgensen both have very slight raises. Let's hope it's not high enough for Trump. He needs to go. Good luck tomorrow America, though it may not be over until Friday...at the earliest. Stay tuned here and our instagram tomorrow as we attempt hourly updates using 270towin.com updating our prediction map to each state's closing and over all winning paths.

Sporkdate: 3897.00958 (October 27, 2020)

One week before the Ameripocalypse and as promised an Election Center updated. On the left is over all based on polling per state and the right is "adjusted" in case polling does not take into account what it forgot to in 2016. Either way both currently a predicted Biden win.

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Since eaerlier this month Biden has dropped verly slightly under the 50% mark. Not much but hopefully it's not too much. Trump saw an unfortuante slight increase. Hawkins and Blakenship have stayed the same while Jorgensen has also seen a sligh increase. Aimming for the next update to be in 6 days right before it all ends...

Sporkdate: 3877.12524 (October 4, 2020)

I know I promised an update yesterday but things got busy. It was actually a good thing I couldn't finish yesterday as I found an article today of how to adjust polls to account for the "mistake" made in 2016 polling. In the data I use and how I use it it would only change Arizona still prompting a Biden win. Assuming polls are weighted properly in 2020 no major change since Tuesday. It's doubtful any of these numbers contain polling since the start of a certain COVID infection and resulting hospitalization. We will see how and if this causes any major change on the next update which I'm aiming to be October 27.

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Since Tuesday Biden has climbed over the 50% mark (barely) for a chance of winning. Trump's over all odds have decreased extremely slightly as has Jorgensen's. Hawkins has also shown a decline in election probability. Please note that on the previous update a "leftover" specalative Independent Candidate was still present. This candidate has been removed as they currently are not officially runing and the data I use currently shows no major independent candidate currently running. If one was running their chance would indeed be 7.73%.

Sporkdate: 3867.59861 (September 29, 2020 Debate #1)

The first debate is currently going on and I'm sure they're already at each other's throats. This took a bit and if all goes well there will be another update here in 4 days so probably longer post/rant then. Currently predicting Biden with 319 electoral votes to Trump's 219.

Current Over all Chance of winning for each Major Candidate:

Of course all of this depends on if the Republicans actually let the mail in ballots be counted. Oh and if Trump doesn't pull off anything shady like paying for recounts to happen in several close states until the Electoral Votes are officially counted forcing a Supreme Court ruling after he stacks the bench in his favor....We're screwed aren't we?

March 3, 2020 (Super Tuesday)

Finally!  It is here!  I know it took forever but you can thank the Working Families Party for that.  Finding election data on them was a pain at best.  Ok so let's see with hours left on Super Tuesday we have whoever the Democrat winner is (I'll find that out myself when I type it below) will get 308 Electoral votes (currently) to Trump's 230 (currently).  Again assuming he's the Republican choice (which I assume he will be).  Ok now the write ups seeing as Super Tuesday ends in like 90 minutes.

Democrats:

Republicans:

All right I am purposely avoiding Super Tuesday results with the last polls closing in an hour now.  At the moment it's looking like a Biden vs Trump Election.  Most likely electoral prediction is the picture but as we see over all Trump has a better chance of winning the election.  I'm sure these results will start to get closer after the conventions.  Also please note NONE of the final primary results have been taken into account.  Next update for sure.

February 3, 2020 (Mini Update, Iowa Only)

Finally after almost two years an Election Center update.  Almost.  See I had it in my head for whatever dumb reason that the Iowa Caucus was tomorrow but it's today.  Since it's today not tomorrow I was only able to finish Iowa not do a national general election for a real election center update.  I mean I will post my results for each candidates' (that has pollable numbers in Iowa) chances of winning Iowa in November (which also gives an order of who will probably win tonight, though Bloomberg is off because there isn't many poll with him so he's way to inflated) as a mini election center update but no big general election update.  I will however have enough time to post on February 10 the day before the New Hampshire Primary.  So catch you all then.

Here's predictions for Iowa:
Democrat Caucus: Biden
Republican Caucus: Trump
Chances of Winning Iowa in November:

April 29, 2018

Well nothing has changed with the electoral map since last time so you can all scroll down and read my rant from then.  Once you're done here are the new polling numbers:

DEMOCRATS: 

41.45% chance of winning Congress in 2018
36.82% chance of winning White House in 2020

REPUBLICANS:

56.85%% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
43.07%% Chance of winning White House in 2020

INDEPENDENTS:

0.85% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.9% chance of winning White House in 2020

LIBERTARIANS:

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
2.51% chance of winning White House in 2020

GREEN:

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.00% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

WORKING FAMILIES

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.01% chance of winning White House in 2020

Again not much changed.  Overall slight gains to the Democrats, Working Families, and Independents with slight losses to the GOP.  There were also very tiny losses to the Dems and tiny gains to the GOP.  Biggest gains and losses in primaries.  Speaking of which most likely primary winners are Michelle Obama for the Dems and Trump the yelling tangerine for the GOP.  This would still surprisingly be a victory for the tangerine, I'm guessing because Michelle Obama isn't actually going to run.  Looking at the general election potentials it's Wilson on the Dems vs Trump on the GOP which would also grant a re-election somehow though it is slight and would probably come down to the electoral votes which shows a Democratic victory, yay.  Overall however the GOP still has the better chance to win, nay.

February 25, 2018

I assume everyone should be sworn in by now from all of the fall elections.  Between that and still waiting to figure out the 2000th comic figure it'd be a good time to update the election center.  If the next update is after April hopefully you won't have to pay your ISP more money to visit ASSC Studios.  If you're just as afraid of that as we are check out these guys and contact your Senators and Representatives at the federal, state, and local levels to tell the FCC to go pound sand.  With that out of the way, we are still slowly seeing the electoral map coming out of its historical data.  As a great man (vampire?) one said "Oh hai"....uh...California.  I see you're back to blue which everyone knows you'll be in 2020.  However it's now looking like the purple state of North Carolina is now red.  I'm expecting more of the west coast and New England to turn more blue while the South turns more red the next time I update.  I'm sure you're expecting that as well.  Before I continue with this digression let's see what the rest of our predictions say:

DEMOCRATS: 

41.45% chance of winning Congress in 2018
36.64% chance of winning White House in 2020

REPUBLICANS:

56.96%% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
45.42%% Chance of winning White House in 2020

INDEPENDENTS:

0.84% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.9% chance of winning White House in 2020

LIBERTARIANS:

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
2.51% chance of winning White House in 2020

GREEN:

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.00% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

WORKING FAMILIES

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.01% chance of winning White House in 2020

The Democrats' chances of winning Congress have improved slightly however their chances for the White House unfortunately have gone down but then again so have the Republicans'.  The Independents' chances also went down, but the Libertarians' went up.  Well with the White House at least, their chances at Congress went down.  Everyone else stayed the same.  Looking at the numbers here if we go by primary results the match-up is Tom Hanks for the Democrats and John Kasich for the Republicans with Tom Hanks winning.  Seriously?  We haven't learned that celebrities can't be president?  I know we all love Tom Hanks but come on everyone Trump proves no more celebrities as politicians.  Let's see what the popular votes show.  That gives us Frederica Wilson for the Democrats, yelling tangerine er I mean Donald Trump for the Republicans (speaking of not learning), and Rand Paul for the Libertarians.  This one would be extremely close but somehow it would still go the maniac who is currently sitting in the White House.  Looks like we're doomed again America!

November 26, 2017

We had an off year election semi-recently so I figured it'd be a good time to update the election center before the FCC rules you can't come to ASSC Studios without paying more money to your ISP.  Hell the amount of parody we do on the government and corporations they'll probably just ban ASSC from the states completely because apparently Democracy and Fascism are now synonymous. *ahem* Slowly we are starting to swing historical data.  Unfortunately the new data only seems to be swinging purple states and Kentucky but let's face it we know how Kentucky is going to vote in 2020.  If you think I'm wrong just think which letter Kentucky starts with.  Seriously really think about it.  Who helped get the yelling tangerine into office?  Yeah I'm saying white supremacists support Trump.  (I'm apparently really begging the FCC to destroy Net Neutrality to get ASSC Studios banned aren't I)?  Regardless if it's just the purple states showing moving data (along with the Great Commonwealth of Kentuckistan) it's a swing the right direction.  Unfortunately it's probably not going to continue as it seems that more Democrats than Republicans are unable to keep in their pants though there are some Republicans that can't *cough* Moore *cough* Trump *cough* but hey as we found out last year the American people are stupid sheep that gravitate to the loudest person in the room and since a certain yelling tangerine is ignoring the Republican accusations we're probably still boned.  But hey this map shows otherwise!  Let's see what our predictions say:

DEMOCRATS: 

40.92% chance of winning Congress in 2018
36.77% chance of winning White House in 2020

REPUBLICANS:

58.04% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
49.03% Chance of winning White House in 2020

INDEPENDENTS:

0.87% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.91% chance of winning White House in 2020

LIBERTARIANS:

0.02% chance of winning Congress in 2018
2.49% chance of winning White House in 2020

GREEN:

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.00% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

WORKING FAMILIES

0.01% chance of winning Congress in 2018
0.01% chance of winning White House in 2020

Unfortuatntely it looks like it's already starting where the percentages are showing something different than the map.  Last time this happened we got the Ameripocalypse.  But we are still three years out so hopefully we are not as boned as the numbers say we are.  Looking at the numbers and factoring the whole primary thing it's looking like a race of Sanders, Kasich, Scarborough, and...uh...no clear winner for the Libertarian primaries so let's just pick Paul with the biggest chance.  If this is the case (very unlikely FYI though I'm sure everyone is hoping for this scenario both left and right) it's a Sanders victory (map is right).  If we just look at the full national numbers (which going from last years seem to be the most accurate) it's Winfrey and Trump instead for the Democratic and Republican tickets.  Oh boy two TV personalities going head to head because we're not a laughing stock already.  But I digress, per usual.  If this is the case Trump wins (numbers are right).  Next planned update is end of January/beginning of February.  If we still have a country by then.  

May 1, 2017

It's been awhile since the Ameripocalypse now that we are done licking our wounds...well not really we still are.  Well half of us are...well technically 2/3 of us are.  Yeah Trump's approval ratings are in the toilet.  Protests every other day, scandals and flubs every day, trampling the Constitution, bill of rights, freedom, and liberty thanks a lot swings states and right wing radicals.  Anywho.....so I was wrong the last time by a few states because blah blah fake news blah blah blah.  Actually because we do our system electorally he really only won by a few thousand and I was predicting a win for him though electorally showed otherwise.  PLUS most polling is done where there are more people, more people live in cities, cities are usually more Democratic so in the sense the polls were slightly biases so hopefully more polling will be done in the exurbs in 2020.  With that said I have the above.  As you can see there is not much data in so it's mostly biased based on historical data which is why the south is blue and the north is red.  Plus the democrats are more split than with just Trump on the GOP.  Here are some predictions:

DEMOCRATS: 

41.54% chance of winning Congress in 2018
43.81% chance of winning White House in 2020

REPUBLICANS:

57.34% Chance of winning Congress in 2018
47.63% Chance of winning White House in 2020

INDEPENDENTS:

0.87% chance of winning Congress in 2018
7.72% chance of winning White House in 2200

LIBERTARIANS:

0.49% chance of winning White House in 2020

GREEN:

0.87% chance of winning White House in 2020

CONSTITUTION

0.16% chance of winning White House in 2020

So there you have it we're currently still boned.  The Democrats currently aren't listening to their own reports of why and how they lost and are thinking it was a turn out issue when really it was more of a turn over from the working class.  Oops.  So it's a pretty good chance that they still won't win Congress in 2018, hopefully they'll finally get their act together in 2020 so the above doesn't happen.  In the mean time if we ignore the Democrats with N/As the most probable chance is Booker v Trump.  Let's just hope there's a country in 2020.

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